EuroBasket 2022: Poland vs France basketball prediction and betting tips (September 16)
France have won all H2H games against Poland. Do Poland have a chance to create one more sensation by qualifying for the final?
Rudy Gobert was MVP of the last game.
Rudy Gobert was MVP of the last game.
by Alex Weaver Alex Weaver

The Poland vs France fixture in the semi-final of the 2022 EuroBasket will take place on Friday, 16 September 2022, starting at 3:15 p.m. GMT. The venue is Mercedes-Benz Arena, Berlin.

Latest odds on betting sites

Poland are priced with the odds of 4.40 (+340 American; 17/5 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 23%. Spain come with the odds of 2.60 (+160; 8/5) to win this match. The chances of their victory are around 37%.

The latest odds for Poland vs France (September 16):

  • Over 158.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Under 158.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (+8.5) points on Poland — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (-8.5) points on France — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Over 16.5 points by Mateusz Ponitka — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
  • Over 17.5 points by Evan Fournier — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)

Match preview and statistics

Poland pulled Slovenia (90-87) down in the quarter-final.

Slovenia showed a bit better attack than their rivals. They made 76 shots and converted 42.1% of them, whereas Poland finished 40.6% of their 69 attempts to score successfully. However, Igor Milicic’s men converted 34.2% of their three-point shots, whereas Slovenia’s accuracy was equal to 29%. Under the baskets, both teams were approximately equal. Slovenia finished the match with 45 rebounds, whereas Poland completed 43. Also, Poland completed three block shots and nine interceptions in the match.

Mateusz Ponitka played incredibly in this fixture. He finished the match with a fantastic +41 efficiency, provided by 26 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists. Slovenian star Luka Doncic did not play his best match. He was only the sixth best scorer with 14 points. However, he was useful under the baskets. Doncic completed 11 rebounds, which is the second best result after Ponitka.

A total of over 160.5 points has played out in four of the last five matches with Poland participating. The same total comes with the odds of 2.05 (+105; 21/20) in this fixture.

France won over Italy (93-85 OT) in the most recent match.

Italy played more aggressively in the match, but France had much greater accuracy. Gianmarco Pozzecco’s men converted only 41% of their 76 shots, whereas their rivals had 51.5% accuracy. France was stronger under the baskets with eight rebounds in attack and 35 in defence, whereas Italy had 11 and 22 rebounds in attack and defence, respectively. France made 24 assists, completed three block shots, but lost the ball 18 times in this game.

Marco Spissu and Simone Fontecchio were the first and the second best scorers with 21 points, each. Thomas Heurtel was the best scorer for France with 20 points and eight assists, but he was not the best player in this fixture. Rudy Gobert received 19 points, completed 14 rebounds and two assists to finish the match with a +28 efficiency.

Rudy Gobert has scored at least 19 points in each of the last three matches. He is priced with the odds of 2.00 (+100; 1/1) to receive 16 or more points for his team in the next game.

Poland vs France H2H

France beat Poland (78-75) in the group stage of the 2017 EuroBasket. Poland played aggressively, but their accuracy was equal to 38.8% only. Also, they were a bit weaker under the basket with 33 rebounds, whereas France completed 38 rebounds. France was a bit weaker in defence with only one block shot, eight interceptions and 16 losses, whereas Poland completed two block shots and nine interceptions.

Thomas Heurtel was the best scorer for France with 23 points and six assists. Mateusz Ponitka finished that fixture with 12 points, five rebounds and three assists.

Lineups and key players

Poland projected lineup:

  • Point guard: A. J. Slaughter
  • Shooting guard: Michal Michalak
  • Small forward: Mateusz Ponitka
  • Power forward: Aleksander Dziewa
  • Center: Aleksander Balcerowski

Mateusz Ponitka was MVP of the most recent match with 26 points and 16 rebounds. Ponitka is unstoppable in the playoffs with 22 points and 26 points in the first and second games, respectively.

France projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Thomas Heurtel
  • Shooting guard: Evan Fournier
  • Small forward: Terry Tarpey
  • Power forward: Guerschon Yabusele
  • Center: Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert has scored at least 19 points each of the last three matches. He has one of the greatest +/- index in the tournament, which is equal to +72.

Prediction and betting tips

France have had two close matches in the playoffs. They have won both games in the overtime and beat Turkey by only one point. In the group stage, they were defeated by Slovenia and Germany, which are strong in this tournament. Also, they have won all H2H fixtures against Poland, but the last two matches were won by only three points.

Poland beat Slovenia and Ukraine in the playoffs. They had two losses in the group stage by 27 and 30 points, which can not be called confident play. However, they are not looking much weaker than France. Also, they have not lost an H2H fixture by more than eight points. I believe that Asian handicap (+8.5) points on Poland are the safest outcome in this game.

Betting prediction: Asian handicap (+8.5) points on Poland

Odds: 1.90 (-111 American; 9/10 Fractional)

Basketball. Semi-final
Poland — France
Asian handicap (+8.5) points on Poland
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